Flawed from the start

Herefordshire Council exaggerated its 'Benefit Cost Ratio' (a figure used to get road schemes through) and its 'job creation' figure (1), it has not tested 'different scenarios' to road building at Rotherwas (2) and it has not taken into account that the road will actually increase traffic on the outskirts of Herefordshire, not reduce it (3). The Green Party is the only party to have consistently campaigned against the road on these points. Labour, Liberal and Conservative Councillors have, with a notable exception, backed the building of the Rotherwas Access Road.

Notes:
(1) The high Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) figure of 13.18  was presented by Herefordshire Council (HC) to get the road through. The Department for Transport (DfT) advised that the estimated number of jobs created (consequent on the building of the Rotherwas Cul-de-Sac) to the Rotherwas Industrial Estate should be reduced from Herefordshire Council’s estimate of 1,030 to 290 (see Major Scheme Business Case, page 5). Herefordshire Council ignored this advice and stuck with the higher figure of 1,030 given in their commissioned Economic Impact Report thus producing a favourable BCR outcome. Further reading: Rotherwas Access Road Major Scheme Business Case, July 2005. Herefordshire Council and Owen Williams consultants.

(2) The worst possible route, involving maximum land-take on the edge of the city, was taken by Herefordshire Council. There were 3 options proposed by their consultants, including one which would take the road parallel to the railway line, involving minimal land-take. The cheapest option of remodelling the railway bridge to take larger lorries under it, was never even looked at. No 'Scenario Testing' was done by Herefordshire Council. The Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), as used by ECOTEC in compiling the Economic Impact Report, section 9, concerning ‘Scenario Testing’ states:
 
Scenarios should cover different possible states of the world in which a scheme could exist. These different states of the world should cover exogenous variables (outside of the promoters’ control) which may affect the assessment of the scheme. … Scenarios should be chosen to draw attention to the major technical, economic, political and local development uncertainties upon which the success of the scheme depends.

Proper ‘Scenario Testing’ would have looked at the availability of the almost empty Leominster* (17 ha) and Moreton on Lugg (84 ha) industrial estates, and the ability of these to provide for industrial and business space, without the necessity for building the Rotherwas Cul-de-Sac, damaging the setting of the historic city. Rotherwas Industrial Estate accounts for only 4 per cent of employees within the County (2,576 out of 62,619 people in employment in Herefordshire (2004 and 2002 figures, Economic Impact Report, page 35 and 10). Further reading: ECOTEC produced the Economic Impact Report (EIR), part of Rotherwas Access Road Annex E Submission, July 2004 for Herefordshire Council.
*A light aircraft recently almost landed on this empty industrial estate, mistaking it for an empty airport, the 'runway' being the main road through the estate, built at a cost of £5m, funded via Advantage West Midlands. It has attracted no businesses.

The road will cross Dinedor Hill which is an Area of Great Landscape Value (AGLV) and is important for the setting of the city. The road will degrade the whole setting of the city and this will have a detrimental economic impact that should have been taken into account. Tourism currently accounts for £170m turnover in the County and is regarded by some as 'the most important industry in the County'.

(3) The traffic study showed that building the Rotherwas cul-de-sac will lead to a 22% induced traffic growth (a.m.) in 2022 compared to 14% growth under the ‘Do Nothing’ alternative. At p.m. times it will lead to 18% induced traffic growth compared to a 17% ‘Do Nothing’ alternative. The consultants concluded that: “The Access Road is not a convenient route for most drivers accessing the estate.”  Herefordshire Council has declared publicly at Council meetings that it will need to build 2,000 executive homes on the land between the Rotherwas Cul-de-Sac and the current city boundary, directly impinging on the Dinedor Hill Area of Great Landscape Value (AGLV), in order to fund the road via S.107 agreements. How much will the presence of 2,000 to 4,000 more cars increase the traffic into the city by? 30% or 50%, rather than 18% or 22%? The figure has not been disclosed. Further reading:  Traffic Impact Assessment. Rotherwas Access Road. Halcrow Group Ltd., November 2002.